USD/CAD – Canadian Dollar Subdued Ahead Of US Retail Sales

Ruble Fluctuates as Russia Awaits Fresh U.S. Sanctions on Syria
April 16, 2018
Forex – Dollar Extends Losses as Syria Worries Ease
April 16, 2018

The has started the week quietly. Currently, is trading at 1.2604, down 0.08% on the day. In economic news, the US releases key consumer sales reports. are expected to improve to 0.4%, after two straight declines. is forecast to remain unchanged at 0.2%. On Tuesday, the US releases and .

It was a dramatic weekend, as a US-led strike destroyed several chemical installations in Syria. Predictably, Syria and Russia strongly condemned the attack, but are unlikely to retaliate despite the rhetoric. The markets had already priced in an attack, and are hopeful that Trump’s declaration of “mission accomplished� means that things will remain relatively quiet in Syria. However, further chemical attacks by the Syrian regime could trigger a response from the US and its allies, which could result in volatility in the markets, and minor currencies like the Canadian dollar would likely take a hit.

The Canadian dollar has looked sharp in the month of April, posting gains of 2.5 percent. However, there could be some headwinds around the corner, as the US has threatened to attack Syria for an alleged chemical attack on the weekend. The situation has become further complicated as Russia has promised it will shoot down any US missiles aimed at Syria. President Trump had vowed that a strike was imminent, but has since backtracked, to the relief of the markets. Still, Trump is unpredictable, and if the US carries out a military strike, panicky investors could dump minor currencies such as the Canadian dollar. Meanwhile, a fact-finding team from the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons has arrived in Syria to attempt to verify if a chemical attack did indeed take place.

USD/CAD Fundamentals

Monday (April 16)

  • 8:30 US Core Retail Sales. Estimate 0.2%
  • 8:30 US Retail Sales. Estimate 0.4%
  • 8:30 US . Estimate 19.8
  • 10:00 US . Estimate 0.6%
  • 10:00 US . Estimate 71
  • 13:15 US FOMC Member Raphael Speaks
  • 16:00 US

Tuesday (April 17)

  • 8:30 US Building Permits. 1.33M
  • 8:30 US Housing Starts. Estimate 1.27M

*All release times are GMT

*Key events are in bold

USD/CAD for Monday, April 16, 2018

USD/CAD for Apr 15 – 17, 2018

USD/CAD, April 16 at 8:05 EST

Open: 1.2608 High: 1.2609 Low: 1.2601 Close: 1.2604

USD/CAD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.2397 1.2496 1.2590 1.2687 1.2757 1.2850

USD/CAD was flat in the Asian session. The pair edged higher in European trade but has retracted

  • 1.2590 is under pressure in support
  • 1.2590 is the next resistance line
  • Current range: 1.2590 to 1.2687

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.2590, 1.2496, 1.2397 and 1.2281
  • Above: 1.2687, 1.2757 and 1.2850

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

USD/CAD ratio is almost unchanged in the Monday session. Currently, long positions have a majority (58%), indicative of USD/CAD reversing directions and moving higher.

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